Third, the North Koreans have already rejected the premises under which Yoon’s plan has been developed and put forward. Undated photo released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Apshows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he observes the test firing of a new-type tactical guided weapon in North Korea. Kim cannot build a credible record of domestic accomplishments toward the goal of economic development on the back of South Korean largesse instead, Kim has prioritized military development at the expense of economic prosperity as an essential prerequisite for maintaining regime survival. But Kim Jong-un’s military modernization goals laid out in the January 2021 Eighth Party Congress clearly underscores that Kim has shifted from an approach that prioritized simultaneous economic and military development to one that sees military development as a necessity for preserving the North Korean system under Kim’s rule. These were the same assumptions that were behind a succession of failed efforts to jump-start denuclearization talks, most recently including efforts by both the Donald Trump and Lee Myung-bak administrations. While Yoon’s audacious plan may be the most generous, tangible, and wide-ranging offer yet proposed by South Korea in exchange for North Korea’s complete denuclearization, there are at least three reasons why the North Koreans are likely to reject it out of hand.įirst, Yoon’s initiative adds to a long list of failed offers involving South Korean promises to provide economic benefits to North Korea in exchange for security concessions. The initiative is premised on the idea of a comprehensive, phased, and step-by-step denuclearization of North Korea and the normalization of inter-Korean relations in exchange for a bold program of economic assistance, development, and infrastructure investment. In his first Liberation Day speech marking the 77th anniversary of the end of Japanese colonial rule over the Korean Peninsula, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced an “audacious” initiative that laid out the foundation of his administration’s approach to North Korea. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during the celebration of the 77th National Liberation Day at the Presidential House on Augin Seoul, South Korea.
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